Scenario management in strategy development
管理科學與工程
Thomas Masurat(維爾道應用科技大學教授)
2019年5月5日（星期日）14:00
將軍路校區經管樓403室
Abstract : Developmentof strategies is based on estimations, prognosis and sales forecasts, even iffuture is unpredictable. This means managers have to deal with an rising levelof uncertainties because today’s markets are highly dynamic and change withinshort time. Based on the approach that the customer orientation will increasemore and more, the manufacturing philosophy changes from conventional batchwise production to lot size one, a prediction of customer’s behavior is alsomore and more less exact or even impossible.
Thougha prediction of future changes is not possible, a different approach for thedevelopment of strategies is needed. The presentation will show how possible,thinkable scenarios for the future can be developed and what kind of strategiescould be derived out of this, based on the companies’ decision what the generalconcept for the future development will be. It will be shown that a predictionof future changes is still not possible but the ability to cope with them canbe improved or even approaches to influence the development of a whishedscenario could be integrated into companies’ strategy development
報告人簡歷 : Thomas Masurat，德國維爾道應用科技大學教授， Clausthal 工業技術大學博士，博士課題“數字工廠內綜合性產品工程與生產流程建設的新組織結構”。Prof. Masurat具有豐富的生產實踐經驗，曾擔任漢堡空客CIMPA 責任有限公司方案顧問、精益生產部部長。Prof. Masurat 現研究主要內容為：（1）工廠規劃研發新設計方法與工具；（2）數字工廠中建立在實時模擬基礎上的設計方法；（3）研發多方參與工廠規劃設計新方法；（4）詮釋適用于中小企業的、創新有效工廠及生產規劃方案；（5）產品研發過程中引入精益理念基本原理（Lean Engineering）.
